Anbody Seen This?

Tiago Can Run, Rags Should

-Tiago is prepping for the Belmont. I think this guy can run all day. The problem is probably getting him unwound in time to finish the race in front. On the Derby replay, the viewer could see him passing every other horse - including Street Sense - on the gallop out.

-Rags to Riches, the only 3-year-old winner of 3 Grade I races is also a possibility. Trainer Todd Pletcher is considering running his best 3-year-old in the race, but only if at least one of the top three Derby/Preakness horses don't run (Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun).

Pletcher is still trying to capture a Triple Crown race and ironically may have lost his best chance by playing it conservative by not running Rags' against the boys sooner. History may show that he had the best 3-year-old in the country in his barn but he instead tried to capture the Derby by playing the numbers game and running 5 horses in the race (Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat and some others I can't remember right now).

-I hope we get a Derby/Preakness rematch in the Belmont - Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun - and we get to see Rags in there with Tiago. I've also heard Nobiz Like Showbiz, Great Hunter, Imawildandcrazyguy and Slew's Tizzy might run.

Another Day In Paradise

We got to the off-track site at Santa Anita today around 10:15. My dad and I picked a table in the Pavilion, adjacent to the bar area and across from the HRTV set. I've never seen HRTV so I didn't recognize any of the commentators, but about an hour before the first race at Hollywood I caught a bit of the programming inside the food court and the male anchor looked terribly sweaty as he gave his take on Curlin to the viewing audience with his female co-anchor next to him. I guess he sounded like he knew what he was talking about, but don't we all.

The betting crowd was slowly trickling in by 11. The pavilion is a funny place. Out of nowhere a buzz can erupt out of a small crowd betting a race at a track in some faraway place. Like today, the feed from the Santiago, Chile course was popular. The feed was fuzzy and dark and the horses ran backwards around the oval across what looked to be weeds. At one point I looked up at the tote board feed from the place and saw that a 50-1 shot had $8 bet to place on him. There really are plenty of tracks to choose from these days.

I was playing exactas at Churchill and Belmont and nearly won on a couple of my early bets. By the time the first race at Golden Gate rolled around I realized how stupid it was to try to successfully handicap races at three tracks simultaneously and I decided to concentrate on Hollywood Park and if I had time, Golden Gate.

"You don't have to bet every race, you know," my dad relayed.
"Yeah, I know, I'm only making small bets though," I winked back. I don't get to the track nearly as much as I'd like so when I do I feel like I need to hit the ground running, fast.

I hit an exacta in the morning that payed around $81 for the $2 bet. It was either at Churchill or Belmont. I'm not sure now. It was all such a blur. I'm thinking it was Belmont since I seem to recall the TV monitor showing the race was behind our table but I'm just not sure.

I hit an exacta for about $29 at Hollywood and nearly hit one for $40 and change at Golden Gate. The problem was that I bet a 2-3 box instead of a 2-1 box, which I had intended to bet. The guy in front of me in line was betting individual 10-cent superfectas and driving me nuts to the point of distraction. I began concentrating on him and forgot who I was going to bet. Then I switched lines and ended up behind a guy that was betting his Pick 6 ticket as he handicapped the races. By the time I got to the machine I bet 2-3.

I got back to my table and looked at my ticket and after a glance at the program realized I had placed the wrong bet. I looked up at the monitor and the horses were almost loaded into the gate and the graphic read "0 minutes to post". Darn. There was no time. I looked at my ticket and thought, 'oh well'. The 2-3 was a long shot exacta. I told my dad that I made the wrong bet but that if it hit I would be a rich man. I watched the race and to my horror the exacta I meant to play hit.

Two guys at the table next two us were back and forth with each other all day. One of the guys was always telling the other guy things like, "I should have boxed it." The other guy would just laugh at him. One such exchange took place after a race:

"I told you we could have boxed it. Throw the 8 into the super!"
"You didn't say that."
"Yeah I did, it would have cost us $1.20 each!"

In the 6th at Hollywood a guy at our table had the exacta and trifecta nailed in the stretch with some big bets - like various $50 and $100 bets - until the 4-horse, Legendary Mud flew from the clouds and won, closing like mad to take the 7 furlong dash. Man. Legendary Mud was the only horse I bet that finished in the money. The guy at our table lost a lot of money on that race but after much lamentation, said that he can't complain much because he gets lucky a lot.

After another race, a regular in the pavilion, the unofficial mayor of the place, came up to our table and relayed his wager from the last race:

"Students of the game," he addressed us. "I was telling these guys I liked the 4 and the 7. I knew the 1 would be there. Where were the 4 and the 7?" We all shrugged. "Did any of you guys like the 4,7? Nope, we all shook our heads. "I shoulda talked to guys before the race!" He laughed and walked off.

I got some of it back later on an exacta at either Golden Gate or Hollywood and nearly hit a trifecta at Golden Gate toward the end of the day. Rounding the turn for home two of my horses were well clear. Well clear. The top two were in the bag. It was just a matter of my third place horse finishing third in the 7 horse field. The favorite, on top of my trifecta, won by double digit lengths and it was almost as many back to the third place horse, who incidently wasn't the one I played.

The walk-out race was the 9th at Hollywood. Maiden claimers at 6 furlongs, 15 horses in the field. Anybody's race. I played an exacta box and some 10-cent nonsense. My dad hit the 10-cent super. The 10-cent bet payed 111.57.

Curlin Proves It: Preakness Reaction

-Curlin proved he's special. He came home on guts and class. Most horses would have packed it in after getting stormed by Street Sense at the top of the stretch. What a finish. We'll see if either of the top two finishers run in the Belmont in three weeks. It would be fun to see a rematch but understandable if those two need a vacation after that dramatic stretch duel.

-Hard Spun is a gutsy horse too. I think he might turn out to be a great miler. He hung on for third, not too bad. He just doesn't seem to have that necessary kick in the stretch to win at these distances against the best 3-year-olds. But he does beat most of them. I mean, he finished 2nd in the Derby. Maybe he does have some kick in the stretch.

-Once again Pletcher's guys were no factor. Is Circular Quay more hype than substance?

-I thought NBC's on the ground reporter, Tom Neumeier, took a bit of a cheap shot at Calvin Borel in his post race interview. Neumeier said, "people are saying that you moved too soon today," implying that Calvin made his move too soon on Street Sense and that that may have led to him getting caught by Curlin in deep, deep stretch. What people were saying that?

I mean c'mon, first of all Street Sense passed everybody at the top of the stretch, including Curlin and looked for a moment like he was going to run away with the race just like he did in the Derby. That's the part of the track where Street Sense moves. Only really special, tough horses (like Curlin) can come back after being passed in the stretch the way Street Sense passed Curlin. Borel made his move on time and it's just lame that he hadn't even caught his breath before he was being criticized by Tom Neumeier.

-How funny is it that the President of Magna Entertainment, or whoever that guy was that presented the trophy to Curlin's people, called Robbie Albarado, Robbie Alvarez?

-The "racing world" was a photo finish away from 3 weeks of positive media and hype leading up to the Belmont. Now what?

Here is the 2007 Preakness Replay:

A Preakness Trifecta

Here's the way I see it. Use this information to figure out how not to bet the race.

1. Curlin: Even though he hasn't emerged (yet) as the super horse everyone wanted him to be, his 3rd place finish in the Derby was real nice. So-called super horses are usually smart ones, and I think this is the race where we'll really find out the deal on Curlin. He may have learned a thing or two. The hype and the buzz has been suspiciously quiet. Remember, the only horse to get a better trip in the Derby than Street Sense was Hard Spun. This is Curlin's race. He wins.

2. Street Sense: Is it possible for Street Sense to get a clean trip on the rail again? I doubt it. Larry Jones will lose it if that happens. He's already waking up nightly in a cold sweat. I think he'll either drop back to last or get carried wide into the first turn. His big kick should be enough for 2nd.

3. Circular Quay: The Derby was the first race where this guy didn't go off as the post time chalk. And despite the "poor" performance, he did rally for a 6th place finish and earned a respectable 96 speed rating. I look for him to pick up the pieces and rally for 3rd.

King of the Roxy should hang on for 4th after taking control around the turn but fading. The speed Hard Spun and Xchanger will set nice fractions 1-2 down the backstretch but will set things up for the stalkers and closers here.

Flying First Class, C P West and Mint Slewlep will probably be nice horses but not here.

The Black Eyed Susan

For 3-year-old fillies, Grade II, 1 1/8 miles on the dirt today at Pimlico.

Dreaming Preakness Trifectas

My 3-year-old son has selected the horses (his peers) that he likes for Saturday's Preakness. It's a nice looking trifecta.

Xchanger - Circular Quay - Curlin.

It makes a little more sense than his Derby trifecta of Sedgefield - Stormello - Zanjero.

Xchanger is coming off a nice win 4/21 over the Pimlico track in the Federico Tesio Stakes. He wired the field that day and posted a 95 beyer at 1 1/8 miles.

He looks to, at the least, factor in things early. He's also the only horse in the field that has a race over the Pimlico track. Maybe my son is onto something?

Circular Quay is a nice horse. But he may be a bit distracted since his trainer (Todd Pletcher) has been catching so much grief in the blogosphere lately.

I'll try to talk my son into boxing this trifecta since I figure Curlin should win.