So-Cal’s Derby Hopes

Here’s a look at the 3-year-old Kentucky Derby contenders that have run at least two major races at Santa Anita, Del Mar or Hollywood Park. The So-Cal horses this year run the gamut from nice, solid picks (Great Hunter), Cinderella stories (Tiago) to horses that should probably make way for stronger contenders lest they get in the way (Cobalt Blue, thanks Merv Griffin!)

Here are my takes (ranked in order) along with notes on how each contender did in their major So-Cal races and where I place them on the morning line if the Derby were tomorrow:

Great Hunter 10-1
Won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in March, ran 2^nd in the Best Pal, Del Mar Futurity and Hollywood Juvenile Championships.

The win in the Lewis didn’t really seem as exciting as Trevor Denman made it sound, but it was a win and he did beat Tiago and others (Tap It Light, Saint Paul) that day. He made a huge move at the ¼ pole.

He looked mature down the stretch in the Bluegrass (compared to everybody else) and seemed to be the only one not lugging in and out and in every other direction and checking out the Keeneland grandstand. He was about to unleash his kick at the 1/16 pole in that race when Tueflesberg slammed into him.

People seem to be writing him off too soon because he finished 5^th and then those same people discount the race because of the fractions and the surface. Hmm… Check out his works leading up to the big one, he’s O’Neill’s best shot. Definitely in the trifecta. Danger, danger, danger…

Tiago 15-1
Won the Santa Anita Derby and ran 7^th in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Broke his maiden by disqualification. He won the Santa Anita Derby with a huge final kick under some serious urging from Mike Smith.

In the Lewis he never really got unleashed, horses were in his way and he apparently wasn’t feeling it. It looked like he just gave up when he figured he had no chance of winning. But in the Santa Anita Derby he burst through a hole toward the inside. Migliore thought he had it won because nobody was looming on the outside, but… Believe it or not but I had the 9-8 exacta for $191 on a $1 bet.

His half brother is Giacomo on the mare’s side and apparently is line bred to Nasrullah and that helps his chances in the eyes of some.

He worked 1:25 for 7 furlongs on Sunday. He also worked 6 furlongs on April 16, so he’s been busy and Shirreff hopes to keep him sharp. He’s scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs either April 30 or May 2. He might shock again at 20-1 (or more! more?). He gets no love for winning the Santa Anita Derby.

It also seems like he needs to relax a bit before really unwinding and he may like the 1 ¼ distance. And he may have learned something in his last race. He looks like a smart one. Lookout!

Stormello 15-1
Broke his maiden in his 2^nd race, a 53K Maiden Special Weight at Del Mar last summer. Won the Hollywood Futurity in December at Hollywood Park and the Norfolk Stakes last fall at Oak Tree. He ran 3^rd in the Best Pal and Del Mar Futurity.

He has been busy. He ran second to Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth. He has tons of heart, tons, as he showed coming back to win the Hollywood Futurity after being passed in the stretch by Liquidity. He’d bred more as a sprinter but has been successful around 2-turns as well. He definitely belongs and he just might try to wire the field unless his connections try to rate him behind the leaders. May surprise.

Sam P. 25-1
Finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby and 2^nd in the Robert B. Lewis behind Great Hunter.

He chased Great Hunter home (and gave him a scare for about ½ a second) in the Lewis and was the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. He’ll lose the blinkers, a recent equipment change, for the Derby and will probably be in the mix along with a dozen others trying to close and make up ground around the final turn and in the stretch. Stranger things have happened…. Would be fun.

Liquidity 40-1
Hasn’t won squat except his maiden race. Ran third in the Real Quiet Stakes and 2^nd in the Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park, 2^nd in the Sham behind Ravel and 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby.

He’s just been kicking around and hasn’t really impressed too much lately. He seems to have been more hype than anything else. If I remember correctly he was the morning line favorite going into the Santa Anita Derby but only really made one decent move in the stretch, didn’t respond when passed and gave way to horses that wanted it more. I really don’t know what to make of him. He might turn out to be a top 4-year-old.

Cobalt Blue 60-1
He won the San Felipe at Santa Anita in March and was 7^th in the Best Pal at Del Mar. Merv Griffin seems to be the only person that believes this guy is ready for the Kentucky Derby. A lackluster recent work and a horrendous showing in the Illinois Derby show otherwise. But Merv was really excited after the San Felipe!

Cobalt Blue is either really inconsistent or he really isn’t ready for the derby. Recent works are uninspiring to say the least. I just hope he doesn’t get in the way too much along the backstretch.