Derby Hangover, Looking Ahead

It doesn't look like too many Derby horses are going to reemerge 12 days from now at Pimlico. So far, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin look likely. As do, Teuflesberg and Sedgefield. Imawildandcrazyguy is looking at the Belmont.

It appears that Trainer Todd Pletcher (Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Cowtown Cat, Sam P., Scat Daddy) is going to "take his ball and go home". He does plan to bring King of the Roxy back in the Preakness though.

The disappointment is understandable, but you only need one horse to win the derby, not 5. Street Sense and Hard Spun both looked excellent in workouts over the Churchill Downs surface and were both sharp for the race.

Based on his 3rd place finish, I can't help but think what Curlin might have been able to do with a little more seasoning. He may end up being overlooked in the Preakness. He was able to make up a lot of ground to finish 3rd after being shuffled back early. But that's what you usually have to do to win the Derby, unless you're Street Sense and Calvin Borel, and then you just come scrape-paint on the rail and slip through when the red sea parts.

Pletcher's horses were no factor in the race, as were Trainer Doug O'Neill's (Great Hunter, Liquidity) entries. O'Neill is apparently taking his guys back to California for some needed soul-searching. "I think a return to California would be good for all of us," he said.

Some other likely or possible Preakness starters are Chelokee, Xchanger, C.P. West, Flying First Class and Starbase.

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As far as NBC's Derby coverage, I don't see why it was necessary to show the horses from the straight-above angle along the far turn and into the stretch. It made everything look like a video game. The angle would have been interesting to see as a replay, but for those of us that are accustomed to watching horse racing on TV, the traditional side angle would have been fine.

Hell, I would have settled for the old-fashioned split screen shot.

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Overall, I think the Derby was a little bit of a letdown. It didn't have the excitement that I was looking forward to because the race was basically over at the head of the stretch. When Street Sense took the lead it was over. Hard Spun hung on gamely but didn't make it exciting. I think everyone was expecting big drama in the stretch.

The Triple Crown series might turn out to be a thrill anyway as Street Sense looks like a legitimate threat. Curlin is still a bit of an unknown. I'm not sure how Hard Spun will handle the distance at the Belmont but he has a good shot in the Preakness.

Street Sense Destroys The Field

Street Sense defied history (and experts) and won the Derby by 2 1/2 lengths over Hard Spun, as the favorite and the reigning Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner. He is a legit triple crown threat. You think? Calvin Borel gave him a great trip and when the red sea opened up Street Sense had plenty of run to take advantage.

Borel must have envisioned and been dreaming about that trip all winter and spring. Unreal. When I saw him making that move around the turn I knew it was his race to lose. I can see the jocks and trainers in the Preakness devising plans and schemes so that that will not happen again. Good luck!

We didn't get the drama that many expected with so many late running monsters closing in the stretch. Where was everybody?

Hard Spun was game and tough to hang on for 2nd and Curlin proved he belonged running 3rd.

Props to Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield for running 4th and 5th as wild long shots. I'm guessing we'll see one or both of them back for the Preakness.

Tiago looked blocked and discouraged from what I could tell, like he did in the Lewis when he finished way back that day. Great Hunter, Dominican, Nobiz Like Shobiz and especially Scat Daddy were no factor at all. Lots of horses were no factor at all.

It's going to be an interesting Preakness and Belmont.

Just a note: Those who bet the Oaks-Derby double and wheeled Rags to Riches w/all lost $16.20 as the double paid $23.80 on the $2 bet/$40 ticket. Cheers.

Derby Hunches: My Picks

So, Derby Day is finally here. And it's probably gonna be run on a sloppy track. Nice. As they say at the track on days like this, 'you can throw it all out'.

That being said, Rags to Riches still looked like a monster in the Oaks slop. I caught that race while at Santa Anita today at the "off-track" get together. I couldn't pick scratch today at Hollywood or Golden Gate and spent most of my time betting around the winners and watching the real big gamblers sweat it out.

I almost hit an exacta with a 9-1 shot on top. But that is neither here nor there.

A guy at my table received a call from his girlfriend in between the 5th and 6th races. She wanted 20 bucks to win on Any Given Saturday. He was busy trying to figure out a "tri" for the next race "up north". He told her he could do it, once it was determined that advance betting was available.

The guys at my table were also kicking around the idea of betting a Pick 6 at Hollywood today. They handicapped the races, circled their horses and then decided against it, after much deliberation.

After the 7th, it was revealed that their ticket would still have been alive. I hesitated to ask but did anyway, "which horse did you have in the 8th?"

"We were gonna single the 5," one of them answered. Five minutes later he left, before the 8th ran. The 9 won. Whew.

I'm not a big better but I like handicapping races. I also tend to bet on hunches. I like to bet maiden first time starters based on how much they were purchased for as yearlings or 2-year-olds.

I like the expensive ones. And sometimes, like today, I throw it all out and bet on a $750 horse because his grand-sire was Nijinsky II. I always liked Ferdinand.

But, the horse ran last or at least appeared to.

So just before the last race at Hollywood I put it all together and made some selections for the Derby.

My bets were all over the place:

I boxed Tiago (my official win pick) and Dominican in an exacta.

I also placed win bets on Hard Spun and Liquidity. Oh yeah, and $2 to win on Sedgefield because my 3-year-old son picked him out of a hat.

How's that sound?

One more thing: Oscar over Floyd.

Random Derby Musings

• Curlin looks real nice at the 2 slot. The big guy with "tactical speed" will have the opportunity to stay out of trouble and wire the field. If he loses the rail and the lead he might be in trouble (along with all the others). If he gets to set an uncontested pace, look out.

• I don't think Hard Spun's quick work at Churchill Downs (57 flat for 5 furlongs) will be a problem and he might be overlooked in the betting. Looks nice at 15-1

• Tiago should be flying late, I think he can handle the distance.

• If Stormello doesn't contend for the early lead, Teuflesberg will probably challenge Curlin into the first turn.

• Great Hunter looks okay in the 20 slot. Nakatani will be able to keep him out of immediate trouble with nobody on his outside. He'll be running late anyway.

• I have a hunch about Liquidity. He's due for a big one and this would be the biggest of them all. Trainer Doug O'Neill might have something up his sleeve.

• I wonder how the potential rain will effect things? Any chance of a sloppy track?
  

My Son's Derby Superfecta

Now that the field is set and the post positions have been selected I thought I'd consult one of horse racings biggest fans (my 3-year old son) to determine a nice little 10-cent superfecta box to play in the Kentucky Derby.

Here are his picks, in order:

1. Sedgefield
2. Stormello
3. Zanjero
4. Storm in May

So there it is: $2.40 to box it (do they offer a .10 superfecta at Churchill Downs?). I can't believe he didn't mix in Imawildandcrazyguy. If it hits, it'll probably pay about eight hundred grand or eighty grand on the .10-cent bet. Guess I have to bet it now!

The Giacomo Connection

Remember the 2005 Kentucky Derby? Giacomo (50-1) ahead of Closing Argument (71-1) by 1/2 a length. There was a large field that year (20), a slow derby time (2:02.75) and arguably the best horse that year, Afleet Alex (winner of the Preakness and Belmont) finished 3rd. The exacta that year paid $9,814.

The '05 champ Giacomo (Holy Bull) is a half brother to Bwana Bull (Holy Bull) on the sire's side and shares half his genes with Tiago, as they have the same mare, Set Them Free.

Bwana Bull finished 5th in the 2007 Santa Anita Derby. Giacomo finished 4th in the 2005 running. Tiago won the Santa Anita Derby in similar fashion to Giacomo winning the '05 Kentucky Derby (from way back and with a huge kick). Bwana Bull has a big kick too, as he won the El Camino Derby and California Derby by stalking the pace and moving big at the top of the stretch.

I wonder what a Bwana Bull to Tiago exacta would pay?

Here's Bwana Bull running away with the California Derby:

Cobalt Blue Out, Teuflesberg In

It's official now. Cobalt Blue has been withdrawn from consideration for the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The decision was apparently made by owner Merv Griffin. According to trainer Doug O'Neill, "Merv said don't run that horse just for me. If we need to bring him back home and find a different spot let's do it."

Lackluster recent works and a 7th place finish in the Illinois Derby (as the chalk) sealed it. I think they made the right decision.

So the "gutsy" Teuflesberg is most likely in based on graded earnings. I think he'll probably be one of the horses vying for the lead past the crowd the first time.

Here he is in the 2007 Southwest Stakes when he beat Hard Spun among others at 23-1: