Derby Hangover, Looking Ahead

It doesn't look like too many Derby horses are going to reemerge 12 days from now at Pimlico. So far, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin look likely. As do, Teuflesberg and Sedgefield. Imawildandcrazyguy is looking at the Belmont.

It appears that Trainer Todd Pletcher (Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Cowtown Cat, Sam P., Scat Daddy) is going to "take his ball and go home". He does plan to bring King of the Roxy back in the Preakness though.

The disappointment is understandable, but you only need one horse to win the derby, not 5. Street Sense and Hard Spun both looked excellent in workouts over the Churchill Downs surface and were both sharp for the race.

Based on his 3rd place finish, I can't help but think what Curlin might have been able to do with a little more seasoning. He may end up being overlooked in the Preakness. He was able to make up a lot of ground to finish 3rd after being shuffled back early. But that's what you usually have to do to win the Derby, unless you're Street Sense and Calvin Borel, and then you just come scrape-paint on the rail and slip through when the red sea parts.

Pletcher's horses were no factor in the race, as were Trainer Doug O'Neill's (Great Hunter, Liquidity) entries. O'Neill is apparently taking his guys back to California for some needed soul-searching. "I think a return to California would be good for all of us," he said.

Some other likely or possible Preakness starters are Chelokee, Xchanger, C.P. West, Flying First Class and Starbase.

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As far as NBC's Derby coverage, I don't see why it was necessary to show the horses from the straight-above angle along the far turn and into the stretch. It made everything look like a video game. The angle would have been interesting to see as a replay, but for those of us that are accustomed to watching horse racing on TV, the traditional side angle would have been fine.

Hell, I would have settled for the old-fashioned split screen shot.

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Overall, I think the Derby was a little bit of a letdown. It didn't have the excitement that I was looking forward to because the race was basically over at the head of the stretch. When Street Sense took the lead it was over. Hard Spun hung on gamely but didn't make it exciting. I think everyone was expecting big drama in the stretch.

The Triple Crown series might turn out to be a thrill anyway as Street Sense looks like a legitimate threat. Curlin is still a bit of an unknown. I'm not sure how Hard Spun will handle the distance at the Belmont but he has a good shot in the Preakness.

Street Sense Destroys The Field

Street Sense defied history (and experts) and won the Derby by 2 1/2 lengths over Hard Spun, as the favorite and the reigning Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner. He is a legit triple crown threat. You think? Calvin Borel gave him a great trip and when the red sea opened up Street Sense had plenty of run to take advantage.

Borel must have envisioned and been dreaming about that trip all winter and spring. Unreal. When I saw him making that move around the turn I knew it was his race to lose. I can see the jocks and trainers in the Preakness devising plans and schemes so that that will not happen again. Good luck!

We didn't get the drama that many expected with so many late running monsters closing in the stretch. Where was everybody?

Hard Spun was game and tough to hang on for 2nd and Curlin proved he belonged running 3rd.

Props to Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield for running 4th and 5th as wild long shots. I'm guessing we'll see one or both of them back for the Preakness.

Tiago looked blocked and discouraged from what I could tell, like he did in the Lewis when he finished way back that day. Great Hunter, Dominican, Nobiz Like Shobiz and especially Scat Daddy were no factor at all. Lots of horses were no factor at all.

It's going to be an interesting Preakness and Belmont.

Just a note: Those who bet the Oaks-Derby double and wheeled Rags to Riches w/all lost $16.20 as the double paid $23.80 on the $2 bet/$40 ticket. Cheers.

Cobalt Blue Out?

Bloodhorse.com is reporting that Cobalt Blue, Merv Griffin's "derby horse" may not run in Saturday's Kentucky Derby after all. Trainer Doug O'Neill cites Cobalt Blue's recent poor performance in the Illinois Derby and lackluster recent works as the reasons.

Cobalt Blue has enough graded earnings off of his win in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes to qualify for the derby but doesn't appear to be improving and according to reports seems nowhere near ready to run in the derby.

This makes room for the fan favorite Tueflesberg, who would now qualify based on graded earnings, to run in the derby and give it all he has to wire the field.

Look for Tueflesberg, if he actually makes it to the race, to try to go straight to the lead and run his guts out.

Here's a look at Cobalt Blue in his prime: The San Felipe Stakes in March.

So-Cal’s Derby Hopes

Here’s a look at the 3-year-old Kentucky Derby contenders that have run at least two major races at Santa Anita, Del Mar or Hollywood Park. The So-Cal horses this year run the gamut from nice, solid picks (Great Hunter), Cinderella stories (Tiago) to horses that should probably make way for stronger contenders lest they get in the way (Cobalt Blue, thanks Merv Griffin!)

Here are my takes (ranked in order) along with notes on how each contender did in their major So-Cal races and where I place them on the morning line if the Derby were tomorrow:

Great Hunter 10-1
Won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in March, ran 2^nd in the Best Pal, Del Mar Futurity and Hollywood Juvenile Championships.

The win in the Lewis didn’t really seem as exciting as Trevor Denman made it sound, but it was a win and he did beat Tiago and others (Tap It Light, Saint Paul) that day. He made a huge move at the ¼ pole.

He looked mature down the stretch in the Bluegrass (compared to everybody else) and seemed to be the only one not lugging in and out and in every other direction and checking out the Keeneland grandstand. He was about to unleash his kick at the 1/16 pole in that race when Tueflesberg slammed into him.

People seem to be writing him off too soon because he finished 5^th and then those same people discount the race because of the fractions and the surface. Hmm… Check out his works leading up to the big one, he’s O’Neill’s best shot. Definitely in the trifecta. Danger, danger, danger…

Tiago 15-1
Won the Santa Anita Derby and ran 7^th in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Broke his maiden by disqualification. He won the Santa Anita Derby with a huge final kick under some serious urging from Mike Smith.

In the Lewis he never really got unleashed, horses were in his way and he apparently wasn’t feeling it. It looked like he just gave up when he figured he had no chance of winning. But in the Santa Anita Derby he burst through a hole toward the inside. Migliore thought he had it won because nobody was looming on the outside, but… Believe it or not but I had the 9-8 exacta for $191 on a $1 bet.

His half brother is Giacomo on the mare’s side and apparently is line bred to Nasrullah and that helps his chances in the eyes of some.

He worked 1:25 for 7 furlongs on Sunday. He also worked 6 furlongs on April 16, so he’s been busy and Shirreff hopes to keep him sharp. He’s scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs either April 30 or May 2. He might shock again at 20-1 (or more! more?). He gets no love for winning the Santa Anita Derby.

It also seems like he needs to relax a bit before really unwinding and he may like the 1 ¼ distance. And he may have learned something in his last race. He looks like a smart one. Lookout!

Stormello 15-1
Broke his maiden in his 2^nd race, a 53K Maiden Special Weight at Del Mar last summer. Won the Hollywood Futurity in December at Hollywood Park and the Norfolk Stakes last fall at Oak Tree. He ran 3^rd in the Best Pal and Del Mar Futurity.

He has been busy. He ran second to Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth. He has tons of heart, tons, as he showed coming back to win the Hollywood Futurity after being passed in the stretch by Liquidity. He’d bred more as a sprinter but has been successful around 2-turns as well. He definitely belongs and he just might try to wire the field unless his connections try to rate him behind the leaders. May surprise.

Sam P. 25-1
Finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby and 2^nd in the Robert B. Lewis behind Great Hunter.

He chased Great Hunter home (and gave him a scare for about ½ a second) in the Lewis and was the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. He’ll lose the blinkers, a recent equipment change, for the Derby and will probably be in the mix along with a dozen others trying to close and make up ground around the final turn and in the stretch. Stranger things have happened…. Would be fun.

Liquidity 40-1
Hasn’t won squat except his maiden race. Ran third in the Real Quiet Stakes and 2^nd in the Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park, 2^nd in the Sham behind Ravel and 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby.

He’s just been kicking around and hasn’t really impressed too much lately. He seems to have been more hype than anything else. If I remember correctly he was the morning line favorite going into the Santa Anita Derby but only really made one decent move in the stretch, didn’t respond when passed and gave way to horses that wanted it more. I really don’t know what to make of him. He might turn out to be a top 4-year-old.

Cobalt Blue 60-1
He won the San Felipe at Santa Anita in March and was 7^th in the Best Pal at Del Mar. Merv Griffin seems to be the only person that believes this guy is ready for the Kentucky Derby. A lackluster recent work and a horrendous showing in the Illinois Derby show otherwise. But Merv was really excited after the San Felipe!

Cobalt Blue is either really inconsistent or he really isn’t ready for the derby. Recent works are uninspiring to say the least. I just hope he doesn’t get in the way too much along the backstretch.

The Curlin Bandwagon

Everybody loves a superhorse. So Curlin, after three impressive wins, including a 10 1/2 length victory in last Saturday's Grade I Arkansas Derby has emerged as the 7/2 betting favorite going into next month's Kentucky Derby. Bet down from a 12-1 morning line, he only has three lifetime starts and has never as they say "been tested".

Street Sense is 2nd in the wagering at 6-1 and a slight overlay off the 5-1 morning line.

The 3rd choice in the wagering is Circular Quay at 9-1 the winner of the Grade II Louisiana Derby.

For my money, Great Hunter looks great at 15-1. Looking at the Bluegrass, he ran on even terms with the top 4 but was checked in the stretch and forced out of the mix. There was no protest from jockey Corey Nakatani. Hmm, I wonder why?

Here is the article with the full odds list at the bottom.

Take a look at Curlin in the Arkansas Derby (props again to partymanners for the video on You Tube)

2007 Bluegrass Stakes

Dominican came up huge here. His speed rating was improving with each race before the Bluegrass and now this. He's going to be a dangerous longshot in the Kentucky Derby if he can handle the dirt track.

And despite finishing fifth, Great Hunter still looks ready for the first Saturday in May. He was checked badly in the stretch just as he was unwinding a huge kick at the 1/16 pole when Tueflesberg veered into him.

Street Sense is still right there, although he looked a little green in the stretch, and after seeing him in his previous two races (Tampa Bay Derby, Bluegrass), I'd say he has lots of guts to go along with world-class talent.

Zanjero and Tueflesberg are also expected to emerge from the Bluegrass and reappear on the first Saturday in May.

These guys were practically walking through six furlongs in 1:16 and change on the poly track but man were they moving through the stretch.

It's too bad they can't get a straight on angle for the finish line at Keeneland.

Props to "partymanners" on You Tube for providing the race for us.