Derby Hangover, Looking Ahead

It doesn't look like too many Derby horses are going to reemerge 12 days from now at Pimlico. So far, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin look likely. As do, Teuflesberg and Sedgefield. Imawildandcrazyguy is looking at the Belmont.

It appears that Trainer Todd Pletcher (Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Cowtown Cat, Sam P., Scat Daddy) is going to "take his ball and go home". He does plan to bring King of the Roxy back in the Preakness though.

The disappointment is understandable, but you only need one horse to win the derby, not 5. Street Sense and Hard Spun both looked excellent in workouts over the Churchill Downs surface and were both sharp for the race.

Based on his 3rd place finish, I can't help but think what Curlin might have been able to do with a little more seasoning. He may end up being overlooked in the Preakness. He was able to make up a lot of ground to finish 3rd after being shuffled back early. But that's what you usually have to do to win the Derby, unless you're Street Sense and Calvin Borel, and then you just come scrape-paint on the rail and slip through when the red sea parts.

Pletcher's horses were no factor in the race, as were Trainer Doug O'Neill's (Great Hunter, Liquidity) entries. O'Neill is apparently taking his guys back to California for some needed soul-searching. "I think a return to California would be good for all of us," he said.

Some other likely or possible Preakness starters are Chelokee, Xchanger, C.P. West, Flying First Class and Starbase.

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As far as NBC's Derby coverage, I don't see why it was necessary to show the horses from the straight-above angle along the far turn and into the stretch. It made everything look like a video game. The angle would have been interesting to see as a replay, but for those of us that are accustomed to watching horse racing on TV, the traditional side angle would have been fine.

Hell, I would have settled for the old-fashioned split screen shot.

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Overall, I think the Derby was a little bit of a letdown. It didn't have the excitement that I was looking forward to because the race was basically over at the head of the stretch. When Street Sense took the lead it was over. Hard Spun hung on gamely but didn't make it exciting. I think everyone was expecting big drama in the stretch.

The Triple Crown series might turn out to be a thrill anyway as Street Sense looks like a legitimate threat. Curlin is still a bit of an unknown. I'm not sure how Hard Spun will handle the distance at the Belmont but he has a good shot in the Preakness.

Street Sense Destroys The Field

Street Sense defied history (and experts) and won the Derby by 2 1/2 lengths over Hard Spun, as the favorite and the reigning Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner. He is a legit triple crown threat. You think? Calvin Borel gave him a great trip and when the red sea opened up Street Sense had plenty of run to take advantage.

Borel must have envisioned and been dreaming about that trip all winter and spring. Unreal. When I saw him making that move around the turn I knew it was his race to lose. I can see the jocks and trainers in the Preakness devising plans and schemes so that that will not happen again. Good luck!

We didn't get the drama that many expected with so many late running monsters closing in the stretch. Where was everybody?

Hard Spun was game and tough to hang on for 2nd and Curlin proved he belonged running 3rd.

Props to Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield for running 4th and 5th as wild long shots. I'm guessing we'll see one or both of them back for the Preakness.

Tiago looked blocked and discouraged from what I could tell, like he did in the Lewis when he finished way back that day. Great Hunter, Dominican, Nobiz Like Shobiz and especially Scat Daddy were no factor at all. Lots of horses were no factor at all.

It's going to be an interesting Preakness and Belmont.

Just a note: Those who bet the Oaks-Derby double and wheeled Rags to Riches w/all lost $16.20 as the double paid $23.80 on the $2 bet/$40 ticket. Cheers.

Curlin Leads Derby Watch Top 25

Derby Watch has released it's latest Top 25 heading into the Kentucky Derby and it's no surprise that Curlin (Arkansas Derby) leads the pack. They have him as a 5-1 favorite with Street Sense (2006 2-year old champ) right behind him at 6-1 and Circular Quay (Louisiana Derby) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (Wood Memorial), co-third favorites at 8-1.

Tiago and Dominican, the two winners of arguably the most prestigious Derby prep races (Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes) get no love at 20-1.

Great Hunter is stalking the field in 7th position, at 15-1.

Historically speaking, Curlin has a lot going against him at this point. He only has 3 lifetime starts, never ran as a 2-year old, he's never been tested and he's probably going to go off as the favorite. That's bad news. Not only does the favorite hardly ever win the big one, the winner rarely pays less than 10 bucks (4-1).

But just looking at him and his performance in the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Stakes, he has an awful lot going for him as well. He looks mature out there, he runs straight for a 3-year old, he's big, strong and fast. And as of right now, he hasn't shown that he can lose a race.

But until we see him in the Triple Crown races, and specifically the Derby, the jury is still going to be out on the guy.

For me, I'm still kicking around my Top 10 list.

The Curlin Bandwagon

Everybody loves a superhorse. So Curlin, after three impressive wins, including a 10 1/2 length victory in last Saturday's Grade I Arkansas Derby has emerged as the 7/2 betting favorite going into next month's Kentucky Derby. Bet down from a 12-1 morning line, he only has three lifetime starts and has never as they say "been tested".

Street Sense is 2nd in the wagering at 6-1 and a slight overlay off the 5-1 morning line.

The 3rd choice in the wagering is Circular Quay at 9-1 the winner of the Grade II Louisiana Derby.

For my money, Great Hunter looks great at 15-1. Looking at the Bluegrass, he ran on even terms with the top 4 but was checked in the stretch and forced out of the mix. There was no protest from jockey Corey Nakatani. Hmm, I wonder why?

Here is the article with the full odds list at the bottom.

Take a look at Curlin in the Arkansas Derby (props again to partymanners for the video on You Tube)

2007 Bluegrass Stakes

Dominican came up huge here. His speed rating was improving with each race before the Bluegrass and now this. He's going to be a dangerous longshot in the Kentucky Derby if he can handle the dirt track.

And despite finishing fifth, Great Hunter still looks ready for the first Saturday in May. He was checked badly in the stretch just as he was unwinding a huge kick at the 1/16 pole when Tueflesberg veered into him.

Street Sense is still right there, although he looked a little green in the stretch, and after seeing him in his previous two races (Tampa Bay Derby, Bluegrass), I'd say he has lots of guts to go along with world-class talent.

Zanjero and Tueflesberg are also expected to emerge from the Bluegrass and reappear on the first Saturday in May.

These guys were practically walking through six furlongs in 1:16 and change on the poly track but man were they moving through the stretch.

It's too bad they can't get a straight on angle for the finish line at Keeneland.

Props to "partymanners" on You Tube for providing the race for us.