Liquidity Ready To Fire?

According to the Clocker over at Keeneland, Liquidity’s workout this morning was, "a spectacular appearance and gallop-out reminiscent of Curlin's earlier this week. Clearly a horse coming-up to the race firing on all cylinders." He also noted that Liquidity was wearing, “some mysterious padding around [his] lower legs protecting his coronet bands (the part between the ankle and hoof wall), typically used to protect horses that strike the ground particularly hard.”

Liquidity is no doubt considered a long shot in the Derby, finishing in the exotics in most of his grades stakes starts, but not quite seeming to figure it all out. Trainer Doug O’Neill has been trying some different things with Liquidity, most recently adding blinkers in the Santa Anita Derby. He ran 4^th that day, and O’Neill say he’s removing the blinkers for the Kentucky Derby and adding a sure-win bridal, which keeps a bit firmly in the horse’s mouth.

The times this morning for Liquidity: 6 furlongs: 1:11.3 [:12.0; :24.0; :35.2; :48.2; :59.3; 1:11.3 - Galloped-out 7/8 in 1:24.0; 1M in 1:40.0]

So what do we make of this? I’m not sure. Maybe he’s a live price at 45-1 or maybe he’s finally putting it all together just in time.

O’Neill’s other runners currently at Keeneland also worked out today. Great Hunter worked 6 furlongs in 1:13 flat, and galloped out 7 furlongs in 1:26.2. The Keeneland Clocker remarked that the members of the California media on site seem to think that Great Hunter isn’t the “monster” that he was as a 2-year-old and then took the opportunity to take a crack at West Coast media in general and Brad Free in specific. You know what? That’s great. Ha ha. I’ll talk to you on May 6.

Cobalt Blue also worked today, going 6 in 1:11.3. The Clocker noted, “this was a full-out work, and when it was done, so was the horse.” Oh man.

Curb My Enthusiasm has video and notes from the O'Neill runners today.

So-Cal’s Derby Hopes

Here’s a look at the 3-year-old Kentucky Derby contenders that have run at least two major races at Santa Anita, Del Mar or Hollywood Park. The So-Cal horses this year run the gamut from nice, solid picks (Great Hunter), Cinderella stories (Tiago) to horses that should probably make way for stronger contenders lest they get in the way (Cobalt Blue, thanks Merv Griffin!)

Here are my takes (ranked in order) along with notes on how each contender did in their major So-Cal races and where I place them on the morning line if the Derby were tomorrow:

Great Hunter 10-1
Won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in March, ran 2^nd in the Best Pal, Del Mar Futurity and Hollywood Juvenile Championships.

The win in the Lewis didn’t really seem as exciting as Trevor Denman made it sound, but it was a win and he did beat Tiago and others (Tap It Light, Saint Paul) that day. He made a huge move at the ¼ pole.

He looked mature down the stretch in the Bluegrass (compared to everybody else) and seemed to be the only one not lugging in and out and in every other direction and checking out the Keeneland grandstand. He was about to unleash his kick at the 1/16 pole in that race when Tueflesberg slammed into him.

People seem to be writing him off too soon because he finished 5^th and then those same people discount the race because of the fractions and the surface. Hmm… Check out his works leading up to the big one, he’s O’Neill’s best shot. Definitely in the trifecta. Danger, danger, danger…

Tiago 15-1
Won the Santa Anita Derby and ran 7^th in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Broke his maiden by disqualification. He won the Santa Anita Derby with a huge final kick under some serious urging from Mike Smith.

In the Lewis he never really got unleashed, horses were in his way and he apparently wasn’t feeling it. It looked like he just gave up when he figured he had no chance of winning. But in the Santa Anita Derby he burst through a hole toward the inside. Migliore thought he had it won because nobody was looming on the outside, but… Believe it or not but I had the 9-8 exacta for $191 on a $1 bet.

His half brother is Giacomo on the mare’s side and apparently is line bred to Nasrullah and that helps his chances in the eyes of some.

He worked 1:25 for 7 furlongs on Sunday. He also worked 6 furlongs on April 16, so he’s been busy and Shirreff hopes to keep him sharp. He’s scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs either April 30 or May 2. He might shock again at 20-1 (or more! more?). He gets no love for winning the Santa Anita Derby.

It also seems like he needs to relax a bit before really unwinding and he may like the 1 ¼ distance. And he may have learned something in his last race. He looks like a smart one. Lookout!

Stormello 15-1
Broke his maiden in his 2^nd race, a 53K Maiden Special Weight at Del Mar last summer. Won the Hollywood Futurity in December at Hollywood Park and the Norfolk Stakes last fall at Oak Tree. He ran 3^rd in the Best Pal and Del Mar Futurity.

He has been busy. He ran second to Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth. He has tons of heart, tons, as he showed coming back to win the Hollywood Futurity after being passed in the stretch by Liquidity. He’d bred more as a sprinter but has been successful around 2-turns as well. He definitely belongs and he just might try to wire the field unless his connections try to rate him behind the leaders. May surprise.

Sam P. 25-1
Finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby and 2^nd in the Robert B. Lewis behind Great Hunter.

He chased Great Hunter home (and gave him a scare for about ½ a second) in the Lewis and was the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. He’ll lose the blinkers, a recent equipment change, for the Derby and will probably be in the mix along with a dozen others trying to close and make up ground around the final turn and in the stretch. Stranger things have happened…. Would be fun.

Liquidity 40-1
Hasn’t won squat except his maiden race. Ran third in the Real Quiet Stakes and 2^nd in the Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park, 2^nd in the Sham behind Ravel and 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby.

He’s just been kicking around and hasn’t really impressed too much lately. He seems to have been more hype than anything else. If I remember correctly he was the morning line favorite going into the Santa Anita Derby but only really made one decent move in the stretch, didn’t respond when passed and gave way to horses that wanted it more. I really don’t know what to make of him. He might turn out to be a top 4-year-old.

Cobalt Blue 60-1
He won the San Felipe at Santa Anita in March and was 7^th in the Best Pal at Del Mar. Merv Griffin seems to be the only person that believes this guy is ready for the Kentucky Derby. A lackluster recent work and a horrendous showing in the Illinois Derby show otherwise. But Merv was really excited after the San Felipe!

Cobalt Blue is either really inconsistent or he really isn’t ready for the derby. Recent works are uninspiring to say the least. I just hope he doesn’t get in the way too much along the backstretch.

Curlin Leads Derby Watch Top 25

Derby Watch has released it's latest Top 25 heading into the Kentucky Derby and it's no surprise that Curlin (Arkansas Derby) leads the pack. They have him as a 5-1 favorite with Street Sense (2006 2-year old champ) right behind him at 6-1 and Circular Quay (Louisiana Derby) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (Wood Memorial), co-third favorites at 8-1.

Tiago and Dominican, the two winners of arguably the most prestigious Derby prep races (Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes) get no love at 20-1.

Great Hunter is stalking the field in 7th position, at 15-1.

Historically speaking, Curlin has a lot going against him at this point. He only has 3 lifetime starts, never ran as a 2-year old, he's never been tested and he's probably going to go off as the favorite. That's bad news. Not only does the favorite hardly ever win the big one, the winner rarely pays less than 10 bucks (4-1).

But just looking at him and his performance in the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Stakes, he has an awful lot going for him as well. He looks mature out there, he runs straight for a 3-year old, he's big, strong and fast. And as of right now, he hasn't shown that he can lose a race.

But until we see him in the Triple Crown races, and specifically the Derby, the jury is still going to be out on the guy.

For me, I'm still kicking around my Top 10 list.

The Curlin Bandwagon

Everybody loves a superhorse. So Curlin, after three impressive wins, including a 10 1/2 length victory in last Saturday's Grade I Arkansas Derby has emerged as the 7/2 betting favorite going into next month's Kentucky Derby. Bet down from a 12-1 morning line, he only has three lifetime starts and has never as they say "been tested".

Street Sense is 2nd in the wagering at 6-1 and a slight overlay off the 5-1 morning line.

The 3rd choice in the wagering is Circular Quay at 9-1 the winner of the Grade II Louisiana Derby.

For my money, Great Hunter looks great at 15-1. Looking at the Bluegrass, he ran on even terms with the top 4 but was checked in the stretch and forced out of the mix. There was no protest from jockey Corey Nakatani. Hmm, I wonder why?

Here is the article with the full odds list at the bottom.

Take a look at Curlin in the Arkansas Derby (props again to partymanners for the video on You Tube)

2007 Bluegrass Stakes

Dominican came up huge here. His speed rating was improving with each race before the Bluegrass and now this. He's going to be a dangerous longshot in the Kentucky Derby if he can handle the dirt track.

And despite finishing fifth, Great Hunter still looks ready for the first Saturday in May. He was checked badly in the stretch just as he was unwinding a huge kick at the 1/16 pole when Tueflesberg veered into him.

Street Sense is still right there, although he looked a little green in the stretch, and after seeing him in his previous two races (Tampa Bay Derby, Bluegrass), I'd say he has lots of guts to go along with world-class talent.

Zanjero and Tueflesberg are also expected to emerge from the Bluegrass and reappear on the first Saturday in May.

These guys were practically walking through six furlongs in 1:16 and change on the poly track but man were they moving through the stretch.

It's too bad they can't get a straight on angle for the finish line at Keeneland.

Props to "partymanners" on You Tube for providing the race for us.